Could the Colombia Earthquake Drive Coffee Prices Higher?

A major earthquake in Colombia has disrupted a key coffee export route, adding another potential pressure point for global coffee prices.

On Monday, Aug. 10, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck Colombia near several major coffee-growing regions. The damage has disrupted roads leading to Buenaventura, the country’s main coffee export port.

According to The Financial Times, the affected route carries about 60% of Colombia’s coffee exports, while port operations were temporarily paused for inspections.

At the same time, Arabica inventories are already low, and prices have risen since early June amid concerns about El Niño.

It’s still too early to know how much damage was done to coffee farms, mills and other infrastructure. But the timing is important.

Colombia Was Already Facing Production Challenges

The earthquake came as Colombia was already facing lower coffee production and export capacity following heavy rains earlier this year.

The country is also preparing for the potential effects of a strengthening El Niño. A prolonged, strong El Niño could affect coffee-growing conditions in Colombia and other major coffee-producing countries like Brazil, potentially putting additional pressure on global supply.

Why Operators Should Watch It

A short-term shipping disruption may not have much impact on the price of coffee. But if roads, ports, or coffee mills and other infrastructure remain disrupted, the reduced flow of Colombian coffee could put additional pressure on prices.

That could eventually reach roasters, distributors, and coffee operators, potentially increasing the cost of coffee.

For now, there is no indication that operators need to change pricing. But with coffee inventories already tight, Colombian production already facing challenges and weather concerns adding another supply risk, Colombia is a situation worth watching.

What To Do Now

Don’t raise prices based on the earthquake alone. Instead, stay informed.

Coffee operators have just come through a period of historically high green coffee prices, and the market could face more volatility as El Niño, weather events, and other supply disruptions develop.

This is a good time to become a subject matter expert on what’s happening in the coffee market. Know what your roaster and suppliers are seeing, keep an eye on green coffee prices, and understand what could affect supply.

Today’s disruption may not require a pricing change. But knowing what’s happening now can help you make smarter decisions if coffee costs begin moving again.

This piece was written by Becca Woll.